Conquense vs Getafe B
Segunda Division B - Group 5, Spain · 2026-09-06 · 18:00 CET
WLWWD
DWLLDThe score model made a Conquense win the most likely outcome at 38%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Conquense 1.14 – 1.01 Getafe B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conquense win | 37.9% | 42.4% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.1% | 30.4% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| Getafe B win | 30.9% | 27.2% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.4% | 38.1% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.1% | 19.4% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 44.1% | 44.9% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 55.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 20.8% | 27.0% | -6.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Conquense 32.3 / Getafe B 37.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.