Recreativo Huelva vs Puente Genil
Segunda Division B - Group 4, Spain · 2026-09-13 · 20:00 CET
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LDLWWThe score model made a Recreativo Huelva win the most likely outcome at 52%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 26%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Recreativo Huelva 1.22 – 0.56 Puente Genil.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recreativo Huelva win | 52.2% | 57.8% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.8% | 26.4% | +4.4% | ✗ |
| Puente Genil win | 17.0% | 15.8% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 53.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 26.3% | 41.0% | -14.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10.5% | 22.4% | -11.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 30.3% | 41.5% | -11.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 53.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.1% | 28.4% | -9.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Recreativo Huelva 25.4 / Puente Genil 22.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Recreativo Huelva vs Puente Genil in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.