CD Estepona vs Xerez CD
Segunda Division B - Group 4, Spain · 2026-09-05 · 21:00 CET
DWWWD
LWDDWThe score model made a CD Estepona win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 25%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CD Estepona 0.97 – 0.75 Xerez CD.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Estepona win | 39.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Draw | 33.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Xerez CD win | 27.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 51.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 24.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 9.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 32.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 50.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 16.8% | — | — | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CD Estepona 38.2 / Xerez CD 32.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.