Tenerife vs Leganes
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-09-13 · 21:00 CET
WLDLD
WLLLLThe score model made a Tenerife win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 25%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tenerife 0.92 – 0.81 Leganes.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tenerife win | 36.2% | 40.9% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 34.1% | 31.2% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Leganes win | 29.8% | 27.9% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 51.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25.1% | 37.3% | -12.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 9.8% | 18.9% | -9.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 33.7% | 44.9% | -11.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 47.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 14.5% | 25.7% | -11.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tenerife 26.7 / Leganes 41.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Tenerife vs Leganes in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.