Gijon vs Eldense
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-09-13 · 14:00 CET
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LLWWWThe score model made a Gijon win the most likely outcome at 56%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gijon 1.67 – 0.86 Eldense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gijon win | 56.5% | 56.7% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 25.5% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Eldense win | 18.9% | 17.7% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.4% | 47.4% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.9% | 27.2% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.0% | 48.2% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.4% | 31.9% | -2.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gijon 54.5 / Eldense 23.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Gijon vs Eldense in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.