Cordoba vs Almeria
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-09-12 · 21:00 CET
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WWWWWThe score model made an Almeria win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 70%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cordoba 1.73 – 1.89 Almeria.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordoba win | 35.8% | 38.5% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.1% | 27.3% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Almeria win | 42.1% | 34.1% | +8.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.2% | 56.7% | +13.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49.0% | 35.8% | +13.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 70.1% | 60.9% | +9.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.3% | 38.5% | +8.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cordoba 45.1 / Almeria 48.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Cordoba vs Almeria in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.