Andorra vs Real Sociedad B
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-09-12 · 14:00 CET
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LLLLLThe score model made an Andorra win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Andorra 1.70 – 1.12 Real Sociedad B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andorra win | 50.7% | 59.1% | -8.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 22.9% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Real Sociedad B win | 24.9% | 18.1% | +6.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.7% | 58.0% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.4% | 36.8% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | 56.2% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.0% | 40.1% | -11.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Andorra 41.5 / Real Sociedad B 31.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Andorra vs Real Sociedad B in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.