Burgos CF vs Ceuta
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-09-11 · 20:30 CET
WWWLL
LDWDLThe score model made a Burgos CF win the most likely outcome at 56%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Burgos CF 1.57 – 0.76 Ceuta.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos CF win | 56.5% | 59.2% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.7% | 24.5% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Ceuta win | 17.8% | 16.3% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.3% | 47.9% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.7% | 27.0% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 42.4% | 47.0% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.2% | 32.8% | +4.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Burgos CF 54.8 / Ceuta 31.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.