Oviedo vs Burgos CF
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-09-06 · 16:15 CET
WLWLW
WWWLLThe score model made an Oviedo win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 26%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Oviedo 1.04 – 0.72 Burgos CF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oviedo win | 42.0% | 48.7% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 33.1% | 29.2% | +3.9% | ✓ |
| Burgos CF win | 24.9% | 22.1% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 52.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25.8% | 39.2% | -13.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10.2% | 19.4% | -9.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 33.4% | 43.8% | -10.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.6% | 26.8% | -3.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Oviedo 26.1 / Burgos CF 54.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.