Oviedo vs Burgos CF
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-09-06 · 16:15 CET
WWDLW
WWWLDThe score model makes an Oviedo win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 26%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 74.3% vs 63.5% implied (+10.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Oviedo 1.03 – 0.72 Burgos CF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oviedo win | 42.0% | 46.1% | -4.0% |
| Draw | 33.1% | 29.9% | +3.2% |
| Burgos CF win | 24.9% | 24.1% | +0.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 52.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25.7% | 36.5% | -10.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10.2% | 17.8% | -7.6% |
| Both teams to score | 33.3% | 42.3% | -9.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.5% | 25.5% | -2.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Oviedo 26.4 / Burgos CF 54.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.