Valladolid vs Andorra
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-09-05 · 18:30 CET
WLDWD
LLLWDThe score model made an Andorra win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Valladolid 1.18 – 1.23 Andorra.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 34.8% | 41.8% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.0% | 28.6% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Andorra win | 37.2% | 29.6% | +7.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.2% | 48.9% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.3% | 28.2% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 54.2% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.6% | 33.3% | -8.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Valladolid 38 / Andorra 41.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.