Las Palmas vs Leganes
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-09-04 · 20:30 CET
LDWWL
LWDWWThe score model makes a Las Palmas win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 34%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Las Palmas 1.30 – 0.77 Leganes.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 48.9% | — | — |
| Draw | 29.1% | — | — |
| Leganes win | 22.1% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.4% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.7% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 39.4% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.1% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Las Palmas 35.8 / Leganes 41.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.