Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
La Liga, Spain · 2026-09-15 · 19:00 CET
LWDDD
WLLDLThe score model made a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rayo Vallecano 1.32 – 0.98 Espanyol.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano win | 44.1% | 40.7% | +3.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.1% | 28.3% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Espanyol win | 27.8% | 30.9% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.3% | 49.7% | -9.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.0% | 29.4% | -9.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.9% | 55.1% | -9.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.2% | 33.7% | -7.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rayo Vallecano 49.5 / Espanyol 43.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.