Alaves vs Valencia
La Liga, Spain · 2026-09-15 · 20:00 CET
LLDLL
LWLDDThe score model made an Alaves win the most likely outcome at 49%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Alaves 1.45 – 0.95 Valencia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves win | 48.5% | 55.8% | -7.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 26.8% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Valencia win | 24.6% | 17.4% | +7.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.0% | 45.8% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.1% | 26.4% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.0% | 48.3% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.6% | 31.3% | -9.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Alaves 46.7 / Valencia 49.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Alaves vs Valencia in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.