Real Sociedad vs Atl. Madrid
La Liga, Spain · 2026-09-13 · 21:00 CET
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WWWWWThe score model made an Atl. Madrid win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Real Sociedad 1.32 – 1.50 Atl. Madrid.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad win | 33.5% | 29.4% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.1% | 26.4% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Atl. Madrid win | 41.4% | 44.2% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.4% | 59.2% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.2% | 38.7% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | 62.9% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.5% | 40.3% | -3.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Real Sociedad 49.6 / Atl. Madrid 48.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Real Sociedad vs Atl. Madrid in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.