Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
La Liga, Spain · 2026-09-12 · 21:00 CET
LWWLW
WLWDDThe score model made a Real Madrid win the most likely outcome at 72%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 4:1 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.21 – 0.68 Rayo Vallecano.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid win | 72.4% | 83.9% | -11.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 17.6% | 10.7% | +6.9% | ✗ |
| Rayo Vallecano win | 10.0% | 5.4% | +4.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.1% | 74.2% | -19.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.7% | 56.1% | -23.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 43.9% | 50.0% | -6.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.4% | 52.4% | -15.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Real Madrid 48.7 / Rayo Vallecano 48.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.