Ath Bilbao vs Elche
La Liga, Spain · 2026-09-12 · 18:30 CET
WDDDD
DLWDDThe score model made an Ath Bilbao win the most likely outcome at 57%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ath Bilbao 1.81 – 0.98 Elche.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ath Bilbao win | 57.0% | 67.3% | -10.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.9% | 19.9% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| Elche win | 20.2% | 12.8% | +7.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | 56.6% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.5% | 35.1% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | 49.9% | +2.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.5% | 38.1% | -5.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ath Bilbao 48.7 / Elche 30.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ath Bilbao vs Elche in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.