Elche vs Real Sociedad
La Liga, Spain · 2026-09-07 · 21:30 CET
LDLWD
DWLWWThe score model made an Elche win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 2:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Elche 1.50 – 1.32 Real Sociedad.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche win | 41.4% | 27.9% | +13.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.0% | 27.2% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Real Sociedad win | 33.6% | 44.9% | -11.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.5% | 54.9% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.3% | 34.3% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | 58.7% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.9% | 37.1% | -1.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Elche 30.1 / Real Sociedad 49.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.