Valencia vs Barcelona
La Liga, Spain · 2026-09-06 · 16:15 CET
WWDLL
WLWWWThe score model makes a Barcelona win the most likely outcome at 62%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 64.8% vs 56.3% implied (+8.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Valencia 1.01 – 2.10 Barcelona.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia win | 17.5% | 13.0% | +4.5% |
| Draw | 20.1% | 19.0% | +1.0% |
| Barcelona win | 62.5% | 68.0% | -5.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.1% | 63.8% | -3.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.7% | 43.0% | -5.4% |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | 56.1% | -0.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.2% | 43.7% | -8.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Valencia 49 / Barcelona 48.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.