Espanyol vs Sevilla
La Liga, Spain · 2026-09-06 · 21:00 CET
WDWLL
LLWWLThe score model makes an Espanyol win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 49.0% vs 39.4% implied (+9.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Espanyol 1.51 – 1.12 Sevilla.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol win | 46.4% | 38.9% | +7.5% |
| Draw | 25.4% | 29.5% | -4.1% |
| Sevilla win | 28.2% | 31.7% | -3.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | 39.4% | +9.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.2% | 21.1% | +6.1% |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | 46.5% | +5.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.0% | 27.9% | +2.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Espanyol 43 / Sevilla 49.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.