Alaves vs Osasuna
La Liga, Spain · 2026-09-06 · 18:30 CET
WLWDW
LLDWWThe score model makes an Alaves win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 78.9% vs 72.8% implied (+6.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Alaves 1.28 – 0.99 Osasuna.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves win | 43.4% | 41.6% | +1.8% |
| Draw | 27.8% | 30.7% | -2.9% |
| Osasuna win | 28.8% | 27.7% | +1.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.7% | 39.2% | +0.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.5% | 20.6% | -1.1% |
| Both teams to score | 45.2% | 46.4% | -1.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.1% | 27.2% | -6.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Alaves 45.9 / Osasuna 48.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.