Ath Bilbao vs Atl. Madrid
La Liga, Spain · 2026-09-05 · 16:15 CET
WWDDD
LWWWWThe score model made an Atl. Madrid win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 3:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ath Bilbao 1.21 – 1.34 Atl. Madrid.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ath Bilbao win | 33.6% | 31.6% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.4% | 28.6% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Atl. Madrid win | 40.1% | 39.8% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 49.9% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.3% | 30.0% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | 55.2% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.6% | 33.9% | -4.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ath Bilbao 48.4 / Atl. Madrid 48.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.