Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo
La Liga, Spain · 2026-09-03 · 21:00 CET
DWLWW
DDDWDThe score model made a Real Sociedad win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Real Sociedad 1.59 – 1.21 Celta Vigo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad win | 46.3% | 51.5% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.5% | 26.0% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Celta Vigo win | 29.2% | 22.5% | +6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | 52.1% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.8% | 31.7% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | 53.6% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.9% | 35.5% | +0.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Real Sociedad 48.7 / Celta Vigo 48.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.