Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo
La Liga, Spain · 2026-09-03 · 21:00 CET
LDLLW
DWDLLThe score model makes a Real Sociedad win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 53.1% vs 49.7% implied (+3.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Real Sociedad 1.59 – 1.21 Celta Vigo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad win | 46.2% | 46.4% | -0.2% |
| Draw | 24.5% | 27.4% | -2.8% |
| Celta Vigo win | 29.3% | 26.2% | +3.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | 49.7% | +3.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.9% | 29.4% | +1.4% |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 54.0% | +1.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.0% | 34.1% | +2.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Real Sociedad 49 / Celta Vigo 49 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.