Partizan vs OFK Beograd Mozzart Bet
Serbia, Serbia · 2026-08-31 · 21:00 CET
WLLDW
LDLLDThe score model made a Partizan win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Partizan 1.92 – 1.11 OFK Beograd Mozzart Bet.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partizan win | 55.1% | 50.9% | +4.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 24.6% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| OFK Beograd Mozzart Bet win | 20.3% | 24.6% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | 59.7% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.9% | 39.4% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | 59.7% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.0% | 41.3% | -2.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Partizan 43.6 / OFK Beograd Mozzart Bet 38 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.