Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe vs CFR Cluj
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-09-12 · 17:30 CET
LWLLD
DLWLWThe score model made a CFR Cluj win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 3:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe 1.17 – 1.19 CFR Cluj.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe win | 35.2% | 37.1% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.8% | 30.3% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| CFR Cluj win | 35.9% | 32.6% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.0% | 38.8% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.3% | 20.2% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.4% | 45.6% | +2.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.9% | 27.9% | +5.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe 21.8 / CFR Cluj 46.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe vs CFR Cluj in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.