FCSB vs Petrolul
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-09-14 · 20:00 CET
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WDWLDThe score model made an FCSB win the most likely outcome at 59%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 2:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FCSB 1.67 – 0.74 Petrolul.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCSB win | 59.5% | 65.9% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.7% | 20.7% | +4.0% | ✓ |
| Petrolul win | 15.8% | 13.4% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.4% | 56.8% | -13.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.4% | 35.9% | -13.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 42.8% | 49.9% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.3% | 40.1% | -7.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FCSB 46.6 / Petrolul 46.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open FCSB vs Petrolul in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.