Csikszereda M. Ciuc vs Dinamo Bucuresti
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-09-11 · 20:00 CET
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WWWWWThe score model made a Dinamo Bucuresti win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:3) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Csikszereda M. Ciuc 0.91 – 1.81 Dinamo Bucuresti.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Csikszereda M. Ciuc win | 18.2% | 15.5% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.5% | 23.1% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Dinamo Bucuresti win | 58.3% | 61.4% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | 51.3% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.1% | 30.2% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | 48.6% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.6% | 35.7% | -4.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Csikszereda M. Ciuc 32.4 / Dinamo Bucuresti 32.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.