Univ. Craiova vs U. Cluj
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-09-07 · 19:30 CET
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LWWWLThe score model made a Univ. Craiova win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 4:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Univ. Craiova 1.62 – 0.94 U. Cluj.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Univ. Craiova win | 52.8% | 59.6% | -6.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 22.8% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| U. Cluj win | 21.4% | 17.6% | +3.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.0% | 57.3% | -10.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.4% | 35.8% | -10.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | 54.5% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.3% | 38.8% | -6.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Univ. Craiova 47.1 / U. Cluj 46 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.