FC Voluntari vs FC Arges
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-09-07 · 16:30 CET
DWLLL
LLDLLThe score model made an FC Arges win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Voluntari 1.00 – 1.17 FC Arges.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Voluntari win | 30.5% | 34.0% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.3% | 32.1% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| FC Arges win | 39.2% | 34.0% | +5.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.8% | 38.4% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.4% | 19.3% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.0% | 45.7% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.2% | 27.1% | +0.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Voluntari 14.1 / FC Arges 34.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.