Otelul vs FC Rapid Bucuresti
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-09-06 · 19:30 CET
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WDWWWThe score model made an FC Rapid Bucuresti win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Otelul 1.13 – 1.16 FC Rapid Bucuresti.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otelul win | 34.6% | 28.0% | +6.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.7% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| FC Rapid Bucuresti win | 35.8% | 42.3% | -6.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.0% | 45.8% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.8% | 26.0% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.0% | 51.2% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.1% | 31.7% | -1.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Otelul 44.5 / FC Rapid Bucuresti 47.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.