UTA Arad vs Csikszereda M. Ciuc
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-09-05 · 16:30 CET
WWLWL
LLLLLThe score model made a UTA Arad win the most likely outcome at 60%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 5:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: UTA Arad 1.86 – 0.87 Csikszereda M. Ciuc.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA Arad win | 60.3% | 60.8% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.1% | 23.5% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Csikszereda M. Ciuc win | 16.6% | 15.7% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.3% | 50.0% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.2% | 29.4% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.4% | 48.0% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.7% | 34.5% | +6.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: UTA Arad 46.2 / Csikszereda M. Ciuc 31.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.