FC Botosani vs Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-09-05 · 14:00 CET
DWDLW
WLWLLThe score model made a Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe win the most likely outcome at 35%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 32%). It finished 5:0 (HT 4:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Botosani 0.98 – 1.01 Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Botosani win | 33.1% | 45.3% | -12.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 32.1% | 28.3% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe win | 34.8% | 26.4% | +8.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31.9% | 48.0% | -16.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.0% | 27.7% | -13.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 40.2% | 52.2% | -12.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.2% | 32.5% | -8.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Botosani 46.3 / Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe 21.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.