Dinamo Bucuresti vs FCSB
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-09-05 · 19:30 CET
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LLDLWThe score model made a Dinamo Bucuresti win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dinamo Bucuresti 1.67 – 0.97 FCSB.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Bucuresti win | 53.2% | 39.5% | +13.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.3% | 28.4% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| FCSB win | 21.5% | 32.1% | -10.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.2% | 50.8% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.3% | 29.9% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | 55.9% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.4% | 34.8% | -5.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dinamo Bucuresti 31.5 / FCSB 46.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.