CFR Cluj vs FCSB
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-23 · 20:30 CET
DLWLL
WWDDWThe score model makes a CFR Cluj win the most likely outcome at 51%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: CFR Cluj win — 50.5% vs 32.7% implied (+17.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CFR Cluj 1.74 – 1.17 FCSB.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFR Cluj win | 50.5% | 32.7% | +17.8% |
| Draw | 24.3% | 27.2% | -3.0% |
| FCSB win | 25.2% | 40.1% | -14.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.6% | 54.8% | +0.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.3% | 33.6% | -0.3% |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | 58.7% | -1.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.4% | 37.0% | +4.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CFR Cluj 45.4 / FCSB 46 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.