U. Cluj vs UTA Arad
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-17 · 17:30 CET
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DWWLWThe score model made an U. Cluj win the most likely outcome at 60%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: U. Cluj 1.75 – 0.78 UTA Arad.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Cluj win | 60.2% | 46.7% | +13.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.8% | 27.9% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| UTA Arad win | 16.0% | 25.4% | -9.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | 46.7% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.8% | 26.8% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.9% | 51.1% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.6% | 32.6% | -2.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: U. Cluj 45.1 / UTA Arad 45.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.