U. Cluj vs UTA Arad
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-17 · 17:30 CET
LDWLW
WLDLDThe score model makes a U. Cluj win the most likely outcome at 60%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: U. Cluj win — 60.2% vs 45.9% implied (+14.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: U. Cluj 1.74 – 0.77 UTA Arad.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| U. Cluj win | 60.2% | 45.9% | +14.3% |
| Draw | 23.7% | 28.2% | -4.5% |
| UTA Arad win | 16.1% | 25.9% | -9.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.0% | 46.7% | -0.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.6% | 26.9% | -2.3% |
| Both teams to score | 44.7% | 51.4% | -6.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.3% | 32.3% | -2.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: U. Cluj 45.2 / UTA Arad 45.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.