Rio Ave vs Estrela
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-09-14 · 19:45 CET
LLDLW
DWDLLThe score model made an Estrela win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 3:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rio Ave 1.30 – 1.52 Estrela.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave win | 32.7% | 34.9% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 29.4% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| Estrela win | 42.5% | 35.6% | +6.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.5% | 46.1% | +7.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.2% | 26.1% | +5.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | 52.5% | +4.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.3% | 31.6% | +0.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rio Ave 26.1 / Estrela 26.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Rio Ave vs Estrela in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.