Nacional vs Alverca
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-09-12 · 16:30 CET
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DLWWWThe score model made a Nacional win the most likely outcome at 47%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nacional 1.38 – 0.96 Alverca.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional win | 46.7% | 34.2% | +12.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 29.4% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Alverca win | 26.4% | 36.4% | -9.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.5% | 45.7% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.9% | 25.8% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.0% | 52.1% | -6.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.2% | 31.4% | -7.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nacional 26.2 / Alverca 26.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Nacional vs Alverca in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.