Famalicao vs Sporting CP
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-09-13 · 21:30 CET
DDDWL
WWDDWThe score model made a Sporting CP win the most likely outcome at 55%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Famalicao 0.86 – 1.61 Sporting CP.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicao win | 20.2% | 14.7% | +5.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.5% | 21.7% | +2.8% | ✓ |
| Sporting CP win | 55.3% | 63.6% | -8.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.9% | 53.0% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.6% | 31.8% | -8.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.0% | 48.9% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.0% | 36.9% | -7.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Famalicao 26.1 / Sporting CP 26.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Famalicao vs Sporting CP in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.