Estrela vs Braga
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-09-10 · 21:15 CET
DDDWD
DDDWWThe score model makes a Braga win the most likely outcome at 55%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 62.1% vs 47.5% implied (+14.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Estrela 1.24 – 1.96 Braga.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela win | 24.5% | 22.4% | +2.1% |
| Draw | 21.0% | 27.0% | -6.0% |
| Braga win | 54.5% | 50.6% | +3.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.1% | 47.5% | +14.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.8% | 27.2% | +12.6% |
| Both teams to score | 60.7% | 50.5% | +10.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.0% | 33.5% | +10.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Estrela 25.5 / Braga 24.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.