FC Porto vs Moreirense
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-09-04 · 21:15 CET
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LDDLWThe score model makes an FC Porto win the most likely outcome at 78%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Porto 2.20 – 0.45 Moreirense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 78.2% | — | — |
| Draw | 15.4% | — | — |
| Moreirense win | 6.4% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.3% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.4% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 31.7% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.3% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Porto 25.8 / Moreirense 24.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.