Estrela vs Famalicao
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-09-05 · 16:30 CET
DWDLL
DDDWLThe score model made a Famalicao win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Estrela 1.00 – 1.23 Famalicao.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela win | 30.5% | 32.7% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.4% | 30.3% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| Famalicao win | 42.1% | 37.1% | +5.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.5% | 43.3% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.6% | 23.4% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 44.0% | 50.0% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.7% | 29.5% | -4.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Estrela 24.5 / Famalicao 25.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.