Estoril vs Arouca
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-09-07 · 21:15 CET
LDLLL
WDLDWThe score model made an Estoril win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 69%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Estoril 1.91 – 1.63 Arouca.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estoril win | 45.3% | 37.3% | +7.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.1% | 28.0% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| Arouca win | 33.7% | 34.7% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.7% | 51.5% | +17.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.3% | 30.8% | +16.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 68.1% | 56.6% | +11.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 51.4% | 34.9% | +16.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Estoril 25.4 / Arouca 25.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.