Ajax vs Willem II
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-15 · 20:00 CET
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DLLLLThe score model made an Ajax win the most likely outcome at 75%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 5:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ajax 2.47 – 0.73 Willem II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax win | 74.7% | 86.2% | -11.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 17.1% | 9.0% | +8.1% | ✗ |
| Willem II win | 8.2% | 4.8% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.0% | 78.8% | -16.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.8% | 61.3% | -21.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | 51.2% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.1% | 55.8% | -13.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ajax 44.9 / Willem II 19.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ajax vs Willem II in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.