PSV vs Sparta Rotterdam
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-13 · 20:00 CET
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DLLDWThe score model made a PSV win the most likely outcome at 81%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 79%). It finished 4:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: PSV 3.24 – 0.95 Sparta Rotterdam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 80.9% | 82.2% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 12.2% | 11.0% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 7.0% | 6.8% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78.9% | 81.1% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 60.3% | 65.0% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | 60.2% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.5% | 58.5% | -9.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: PSV 44.1 / Sparta Rotterdam 44.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open PSV vs Sparta Rotterdam in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.