Excelsior vs Utrecht
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-13 · 12:15 CET
DLDLL
DWLWWThe score model made an Utrecht win the most likely outcome at 37%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Excelsior 1.53 – 1.54 Utrecht.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior win | 36.7% | 43.0% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.1% | 25.6% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Utrecht win | 37.2% | 31.4% | +5.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.2% | 60.3% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.9% | 39.6% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% | 63.2% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.6% | 41.1% | -8.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Excelsior 33.5 / Utrecht 45 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Excelsior vs Utrecht in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.