G.A. Eagles vs Groningen
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-12 · 18:45 CET
LDDDD
LDDWWThe score model made a G.A. Eagles win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: G.A. Eagles 1.81 – 1.32 Groningen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.A. Eagles win | 48.1% | 41.1% | +7.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 24.4% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| Groningen win | 27.0% | 34.5% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.4% | 67.1% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.1% | 46.6% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.2% | 67.9% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.1% | 47.1% | -4.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: G.A. Eagles 44.2 / Groningen 39.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open G.A. Eagles vs Groningen in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.