AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-11 · 20:00 CET
WWDWL
LDLLLThe score model made an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely outcome at 73%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 2.42 – 0.77 Willem II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar win | 73.0% | 83.1% | -10.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 17.6% | 10.8% | +6.8% | ✓ |
| Willem II win | 9.4% | 6.1% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.8% | 75.2% | -13.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.6% | 56.4% | -16.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | 52.3% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.5% | 53.3% | -11.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AZ Alkmaar 44.4 / Willem II 18.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.