Nijmegen vs Excelsior
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-08 · 18:45 CET
LDLDD
WDLDLThe score model made a Nijmegen win the most likely outcome at 57%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nijmegen 2.15 – 1.24 Excelsior.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nijmegen win | 57.3% | 58.1% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.1% | 22.4% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| Excelsior win | 20.5% | 19.5% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.7% | 64.6% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.8% | 44.1% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 63.5% | 61.9% | +1.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.4% | 44.6% | -4.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nijmegen 43.6 / Excelsior 32.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.