Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-06 · 14:30 CET
DLDWL
WWDWLThe score model made an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely outcome at 44%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 2:3 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Heerenveen 1.38 – 1.71 AZ Alkmaar.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen win | 30.1% | 27.3% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.6% | 23.5% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| AZ Alkmaar win | 44.3% | 49.1% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.6% | 68.4% | -8.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.2% | 48.9% | -11.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 62.3% | 68.0% | -5.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.6% | 46.9% | -7.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Heerenveen 44.6 / AZ Alkmaar 43.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.