Groningen vs Twente
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-06 · 12:15 CET
LWWLL
WLLWWThe score model makes a Twente win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 69.5% vs 61.1% implied (+8.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Groningen 1.23 – 1.56 Twente.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen win | 28.9% | 28.7% | +0.2% |
| Draw | 27.2% | 24.7% | +2.5% |
| Twente win | 43.9% | 46.6% | -2.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | 59.2% | -6.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.4% | 38.9% | -8.5% |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | 61.4% | -4.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.0% | 40.9% | -4.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Groningen 39.7 / Twente 43.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.