Groningen vs Twente
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-06 · 12:15 CET
LDDWW
DWWWDThe score model made a Twente win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 2:2 (HT 2:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Groningen 1.23 – 1.56 Twente.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen win | 29.0% | 27.7% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.2% | 23.8% | +3.4% | ✓ |
| Twente win | 43.8% | 48.5% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | 67.3% | -14.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.5% | 47.2% | -16.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 67.4% | -10.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.1% | 45.7% | -9.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Groningen 39.2 / Twente 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.