Willem II vs Excelsior
Eredivisie, Netherlands · 2026-09-05 · 21:00 CET
WLLLD
DWWLWThe score model makes an Excelsior win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 69.7% vs 61.6% implied (+8.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Willem II 1.26 – 1.41 Excelsior.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II win | 32.5% | 33.1% | -0.6% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 26.3% | +1.9% |
| Excelsior win | 39.3% | 40.6% | -1.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 56.7% | -6.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.0% | 35.9% | -7.9% |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | 60.2% | -4.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.3% | 38.4% | -8.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Willem II 17.8 / Excelsior 32.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.